Last week's budget put infrastructure spending into the
spotlight. While the value of infrastructure spending
cannot be disputed, sometimes more is less and the kind of
infrastructure spending is more important than the amount
spent.
Traffic congestion is a real problem that can be addressed
by efficient policy.
Congestion
is more than a tax on time; it is wastage.
In Gauteng alone, if each of the 3.1 million people aged
between 15 and 65 wasted 20 minutes in traffic a day, about 1
million hours would be wasted a day, and 270 million hours
would be wasted a year.
Policy to address congestion is an example of how important
it is to spend wisely and illustrates that the right response
is often not only obscure but counterintuitive.
Economic solutions are seldom obvious. Economic and
engineering problems are very different in character. The
following examples illustrate the difference between the two
types of thinking.
Engineering question: How do you increase the rate of flow
of water out of the bathtub?
Answer: The rate of flow of water will be increased by
making the drain of the tub wider.
Economic question: How do you improve the flow of traffic
into and out of metropolitan areas?
The wrong answer: One is tempted to draw an analogy between
the problems and to offer the symmetrical solution to the
economic question. If your answer to the economic question was
to increase the number of lanes between residential and
metropolitan areas, you would be dead wrong. If you had
answered that increasing the number of lanes would have helped
the congestion problem to an extent ... you would also have
been dead wrong.
This is not merely a theoretical experiment, it is an
empirical fact that increasing the number of lanes does
nothing to alleviate congestion permanently. When such
solutions have been adopted, congestion initially improved but
within weeks it was back to the state it was before the change
to the roads.
Economics is populated by counterintuitive outcomes to
seemingly obvious policy remedies because we are not dealing
with fluid flows but with rational economic agents who are
constantly assessing the costs and benefits of their actions
in ways they are often not fully conscious of.
Specifically, in the case of congestion, when people see
that the lanes have widened, those who have been leaving
earlier in the mornings and later in the evenings decide that
it is no longer necessary to do so, car poolers decide that
their transport sharing arrangements have now become redundant
and some of those who were deterred from going into town for
an errand during lunch will decide to take that trip. Once
again you have a congestion problem.
The correct answer is a two-pronged policy response:
firstly, to charge people entering commercial hubs during peak
hours and, secondly, to provide sufficient and reliable public
transport.
There is likely to be opposition to measures that would
charge vehicles that entered metropolitan areas during peak
hours.
Stores in metropolitan areas would have to pay their
employees more to cover the costs of coming to work every day
and would make less money if the congestion charge induced
people to get their goods or services from other places. In
the long run, businesses in competitive industries with
price-sensitive clients might even move out of metropolitan
areas.
Recently, opposition from the business community led New
York to reject congestion tax.
However, we should not be defeatist. Congestion is more
than a tax: the time and fuel consumed by sitting in traffic
does not accrue to a central collection agency to be
redistributed; it is wasted.
As South Africa ponders how best to conserve its fuel
during the new era of high oil prices, it becomes more urgent
to address the problem of congestion that seems to worsen in
spite of the increase in the price of fuel.
Charging vehicles that enter areas prone to congestion
during peak periods will be effective in alleviating
congestion without prejudicing businesses in those areas only
if there is sufficient and reliable public transport.
Without public transport, there will be an inelastic demand
for the use of the roads and any measures to charge commuters
will result in the accrual of tax revenue without much of a
reduction in congestion.
A sound public transport system does not mushroom overnight
but there is something we can do before such a system is up
and running.
South Africa is unique in that metropolitan areas are
serviced by privately owned taxis, which are important sources
of income. It would be neither equitable nor wise to charge
taxis for the use of congested roads. We want to encourage
public transport, not tax it. Measures that exclusively target
persons who travel alone into congested areas will encourage
car pooling and there will be little opposition if the tax
revenue accrued is earmarked for developing public transport.
How would such a system be administered? In London, cameras
take pictures of car licence plates and debit owners' accounts
at the end of the month. In Singapore, commuters buy cards
similar to our cellular pay-as-you-go cards, which are read by
scanners at checkpoints and debited accordingly.
These systems of payment have the advantage in that they
are not intrusive and do not add to the congestion problem. By
contrast, having traffic policemen approach vehicles with
single occupants to administer fines would cause greater
congestion than the single-person-occupied vehicle itself.
The most difficult matter in applying such a tax is pricing
the value of using the road. Use of a road is not a good that
can be bought and sold in the private sector. A price that is
too high would deter business activity in excess of the cost
of congestion; a price that is too low would not alleviate the
congestion problem.
This is an empirical matter than cannot be settled in the
course of this discussion, but a problem so serious that
failure to estimate it accurately could destroy the integrity
of the policy initiative.
Congestion is a real problem with real costs. It is also an
opportunity to create and implement an effective policy
response. Relieving congestion will result in considerable
wealth and efficiency gains. It is not the most serious
problem the country faces, but it is one worth taking some
time to think about when you have a spare moment - perhaps
when you are stuck in rush hour traffic on the way to work.